The best indicator for AUD/USD
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real AUD/USD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for AUD/USD over ~20.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.53 | -18.0% | 33.3% | 114 | 3.3% |
| 2 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.17 | -25.7% | 75.0% | 20 | 1.3% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Daily | 1.0% | 0.16 | -25.3% | 37.4% | 1120 | 1.4% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.13 | -34.5% | 35.3% | 51 | 1.1% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.13 | -22.8% | 35.7% | 14 | 0.9% |
| 6 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.12 | -25.5% | 74.2% | 31 | 1.0% |
| 7 | MACD | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.09 | -39.2% | 39.5% | 43 | 0.7% |
| 8 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.09 | -24.7% | 37.5% | 24 | 0.7% |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.08 | -30.1% | 76.2% | 21 | 0.6% |
| 10 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.09 | -27.0% | 44.4% | 9 | 0.8% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 0.0% | 0.05 | -28.7% | 56.5% | 23 | 0.4% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -0.2% | 0.01 | -35.7% | 34.0% | 47 | 0.2% |
| 13 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | -0.3% | 0.01 | -27.1% | 68.8% | 16 | 0.0% |
| 14 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | -0.2% | 0.01 | -43.5% | 42.4% | 59 | 0.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For AUD/USD, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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