The best indicator for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
SMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over ~27.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.66 | -36.5% | 70.6% | 17 | 0.2% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.64 | -56.9% | 46.7% | 60 | -1.5% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.64 | -48.1% | 56.6% | 76 | -1.3% |
| 4 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.61 | -35.2% | 53.7% | 41 | -3.5% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.59 | -62.8% | 57.6% | 66 | -2.2% |
| 6 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 16.5% | 1.21 | -13.4% | 41.7% | 12 | -9.1% |
| 7 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.56 | -41.8% | 76.0% | 25 | -3.4% |
| 8 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 17.7% | 1.3 | -13.2% | 45.5% | 11 | -7.8% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.6% | 0.63 | -36.5% | 66.7% | 12 | -0.2% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | 1-Hour | 7.4% | 0.84 | -15.4% | 39.5% | 86 | -18.2% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | 1-Hour | 9.3% | 0.84 | -14.3% | 37.8% | 82 | -16.3% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.47 | -52.8% | 45.9% | 61 | -4.2% |
| 13 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.47 | -40.3% | 66.7% | 24 | -5.8% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.46 | -61.6% | 52.1% | 119 | -4.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), SMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More index etf
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.