The best indicator for 20Y Treasuries (TLT)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 20Y Treasuries (TLT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 20Y Treasuries (TLT) over ~23.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.42 | -20.1% | 53.5% | 43 | 0.2% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.35 | -22.9% | 48.1% | 27 | -0.6% |
| 3 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 3.8% | 0.58 | -7.8% | 70.6% | 51 | 9.1% |
| 4 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.28 | -22.8% | 47.8% | 23 | -1.5% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 2.4% | 0.27 | -30.3% | 40.0% | 55 | -1.3% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.27 | -40.5% | 81.0% | 21 | -1.6% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.27 | -29.3% | 48.1% | 79 | -1.2% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.25 | -28.0% | 48.5% | 68 | -1.5% |
| 9 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.23 | -33.1% | 46.4% | 69 | -1.6% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.6% | 0.22 | -26.2% | 55.0% | 20 | -1.9% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 1.7% | 0.21 | -33.8% | 46.7% | 15 | -1.9% |
| 12 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | 1.3% | 0.18 | -35.0% | 45.0% | 100 | -2.4% |
| 13 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.17 | -27.4% | 36.4% | 22 | -2.4% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Weekly | 0.8% | 0.17 | -30.9% | 70.6% | 17 | -2.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 20Y Treasuries (TLT), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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