The best indicator for Aave (AAVE)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Aave (AAVE) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Aave (AAVE) over ~8.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 58.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 34.2% | 0.77 | -57.3% | 40.6% | 101 | -45.0% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 21.1% | 0.61 | -63.5% | 40.7% | 108 | -58.1% |
| 3 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 17.4% | 0.56 | -72.5% | 44.0% | 50 | -61.8% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | 14.1% | 0.51 | -76.1% | 48.3% | 29 | -65.1% |
| 5 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 11.9% | 0.48 | -79.0% | 63.0% | 46 | -67.3% |
| 6 | MACD | Daily | 9.8% | 0.46 | -78.9% | 27.6% | 76 | -69.4% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.1% | 0.44 | -89.3% | 29.4% | 17 | -71.1% |
| 8 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.41 | -79.0% | 68.4% | 57 | -71.8% |
| 9 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 16.9% | 0.55 | -82.9% | 36.4% | 11 | 13.8% |
| 10 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.4 | -85.8% | 43.8% | 16 | 2.3% |
| 11 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Daily | 54.8% | 0.35 | -94.5% | 42.6% | 371 | -24.4% |
| 12 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.34 | -93.4% | 41.2% | 17 | -2.5% |
| 13 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Daily | -0.4% | 0.3 | -73.3% | 58.8% | 34 | -79.6% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | -3.2% | 0.3 | -89.5% | 41.7% | 24 | -6.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Aave (AAVE), RSI Trend (>50) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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