The best indicator for Arbitrum (ARB)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Arbitrum (ARB) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Holy Grail Confluence
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Arbitrum (ARB) over ~12.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 62.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | 59.5% | 0.74 | -71.0% | 71.4% | 42 | 75.2% |
| 2 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 46.4% | 0.63 | -86.7% | 86.7% | 15 | 62.2% |
| 3 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 54.4% | 0.62 | -56.4% | 70.0% | 20 | 70.2% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | -46.7% | 0.36 | -100.0% | 26.7% | 45 | -30.9% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | -38.1% | 0.37 | -99.1% | 33.3% | 12 | -20.3% |
| 6 | MACD ✓ | Daily | -41.2% | 0.29 | -100.0% | 31.6% | 95 | -25.4% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 120.2% | 0.29 | -93.9% | 71.2% | 59 | 136.0% |
| 8 | Williams %R | Daily | 94.8% | 0.29 | -94.6% | 60.3% | 73 | 110.6% |
| 9 | CCI | Daily | 166.8% | 0.29 | -93.2% | 59.6% | 52 | 182.6% |
| 10 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 27.3% | 0.29 | -100.0% | 58.5% | 41 | 43.0% |
| 11 | Money Flow Index | Daily | 107.2% | 0.29 | -97.1% | 57.9% | 19 | 123.0% |
| 12 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | -54.0% | 0.29 | -100.0% | 31.2% | 170 | -38.2% |
| 13 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 82.6% | 0.29 | -99.8% | 39.6% | 407 | 98.4% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | -65.7% | 0.28 | -100.0% | 36.8% | 182 | -49.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Arbitrum (ARB), Holy Grail Confluence on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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