The best indicator for Airbnb (ABNB)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Airbnb (ABNB) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Airbnb (ABNB) over ~5.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 13.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 12.4% | 0.7 | -28.0% | 81.8% | 11 | 13.8% |
| 2 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 8.9% | 0.48 | -32.0% | 69.2% | 26 | 10.4% |
| 3 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 11.7% | 0.54 | -47.7% | 77.8% | 9 | 12.4% |
| 4 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.3 | -36.8% | 41.2% | 51 | 5.6% |
| 5 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.4 | -28.0% | 62.5% | 8 | 8.1% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 1.6% | 0.21 | -53.9% | 63.6% | 22 | 3.1% |
| 7 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.27 | -47.7% | 66.7% | 9 | 4.5% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | -1.8% | 0.06 | -37.1% | 42.9% | 21 | -0.3% |
| 9 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | -3.0% | 0.05 | -64.6% | 45.1% | 82 | -1.6% |
| 10 | Stochastic | Daily | -3.3% | 0.03 | -36.6% | 63.0% | 27 | -1.9% |
| 11 | ADX / DMI | Daily | -3.0% | -0.03 | -47.4% | 60.0% | 25 | -1.5% |
| 12 | Bollinger Breakout | Daily | -3.4% | -0.04 | -38.5% | 39.1% | 23 | -1.9% |
| 13 | MACD | Daily | -5.3% | -0.05 | -59.7% | 41.1% | 56 | -3.8% |
| 14 | CCI | Daily | -8.2% | -0.15 | -57.0% | 66.7% | 24 | -6.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Airbnb (ABNB), RSI Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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