The best indicator for Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) over ~46.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.46 | -42.0% | 46.7% | 90 | -2.8% |
| 2 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.45 | -52.8% | 92.9% | 14 | -4.9% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.38 | -50.4% | 40.2% | 107 | -4.0% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.8% | 0.37 | -52.1% | 39.4% | 33 | -4.5% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.37 | -54.8% | 73.0% | 37 | -4.7% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.34 | -59.9% | 50.4% | 139 | -5.1% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.33 | -56.6% | 66.8% | 226 | -5.7% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.33 | -67.4% | 46.2% | 26 | -5.3% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 4.7% | 0.33 | -55.7% | 45.0% | 129 | -5.4% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.31 | -51.8% | 44.7% | 38 | -5.7% |
| 11 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.31 | -37.9% | 66.7% | 57 | -6.1% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.29 | -44.8% | 76.2% | 42 | -6.5% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.28 | -60.9% | 46.1% | 141 | -6.4% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.27 | -42.7% | 48.8% | 41 | -6.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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