The best indicator for Aflac (AFL)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Aflac (AFL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Aflac (AFL) over ~46.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 12.3% | 0.59 | -48.3% | 50.0% | 20 | -6.0% |
| 2 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.4% | 0.55 | -54.7% | 65.7% | 35 | -6.6% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.1% | 0.55 | -52.6% | 49.0% | 96 | -6.8% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 10.2% | 0.54 | -70.8% | 74.8% | 230 | -7.8% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 9.6% | 0.53 | -62.1% | 55.6% | 90 | -8.7% |
| 6 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 9.5% | 0.52 | -59.0% | 76.6% | 239 | -8.4% |
| 7 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.1% | 0.5 | -71.4% | 50.0% | 30 | -7.8% |
| 8 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.49 | -78.5% | 94.6% | 37 | -9.8% |
| 9 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 9.0% | 0.48 | -74.2% | 69.9% | 319 | -9.0% |
| 10 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.3% | 0.47 | -44.5% | 47.3% | 222 | -10.0% |
| 11 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 8.8% | 0.46 | -75.0% | 68.2% | 176 | -9.2% |
| 12 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.45 | -55.0% | 60.0% | 40 | -11.1% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.44 | -57.8% | 46.6% | 148 | -10.7% |
| 14 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.44 | -59.7% | 53.3% | 135 | -10.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Aflac (AFL), EMA 20/50 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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