The best indicator for American Express (AXP)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real American Express (AXP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for American Express (AXP) over ~54.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 7.7% | 0.44 | -63.2% | 70.9% | 275 | -3.1% |
| 2 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.42 | -60.4% | 69.2% | 370 | -3.3% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.41 | -70.2% | 41.2% | 34 | -3.5% |
| 4 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.39 | -81.9% | 67.3% | 205 | -3.7% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.39 | -65.3% | 47.8% | 23 | -4.3% |
| 6 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.38 | -59.2% | 74.1% | 259 | -4.4% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.38 | -54.2% | 53.5% | 187 | -4.8% |
| 8 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.36 | -65.3% | 75.0% | 48 | -4.8% |
| 9 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.36 | -71.6% | 57.1% | 112 | -5.0% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.7% | 0.34 | -49.9% | 53.2% | 47 | -6.0% |
| 11 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.32 | -70.7% | 46.5% | 43 | -6.0% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.32 | -57.7% | 43.2% | 155 | -6.0% |
| 13 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.32 | -54.6% | 43.9% | 157 | -6.1% |
| 14 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.3 | -82.2% | 76.9% | 39 | -6.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For American Express (AXP), Stochastic on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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