The best indicator for Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Builders FirstSource (BLDR) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Builders FirstSource (BLDR) over ~21.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 9.6% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 17.9% | 0.57 | -64.8% | 52.8% | 36 | 9.6% |
| 2 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 17.5% | 0.57 | -54.0% | 50.0% | 46 | 9.2% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 14.0% | 0.5 | -73.0% | 43.1% | 58 | 5.7% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.1% | 0.47 | -84.1% | 46.5% | 43 | 3.6% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 10.9% | 0.47 | -62.6% | 53.3% | 15 | 2.6% |
| 6 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.39 | -57.3% | 55.6% | 18 | -0.8% |
| 7 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.36 | -62.2% | 33.3% | 15 | -1.8% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.36 | -74.9% | 38.2% | 89 | -1.5% |
| 9 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.35 | -75.3% | 42.9% | 63 | -1.7% |
| 10 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.32 | -84.0% | 36.3% | 273 | -3.5% |
| 11 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.6% | 0.26 | -81.9% | 26.7% | 15 | -5.9% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.26 | -82.7% | 36.4% | 286 | -6.2% |
| 13 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.26 | -65.6% | 54.5% | 33 | -5.4% |
| 14 | MACD | Daily | 1.4% | 0.25 | -84.6% | 41.3% | 213 | -7.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Builders FirstSource (BLDR), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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