The best indicator for Casey's (CASY)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Casey's (CASY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
WaveTrend (8/6/4)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Casey's (CASY) over ~42.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 11.8% | 0.61 | -64.6% | 72.5% | 167 | -5.2% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.6 | -56.9% | 53.3% | 15 | -3.6% |
| 3 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 9.4% | 0.58 | -57.1% | 76.9% | 65 | -7.6% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.8% | 0.54 | -65.9% | 37.9% | 29 | -5.2% |
| 5 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 9.2% | 0.53 | -61.0% | 73.7% | 217 | -7.9% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 7.8% | 0.51 | -66.5% | 69.9% | 166 | -9.2% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.48 | -49.7% | 83.9% | 31 | -9.8% |
| 8 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.5% | 0.47 | -71.1% | 57.6% | 33 | -7.5% |
| 9 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.43 | -74.2% | 68.3% | 202 | -9.9% |
| 10 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.43 | -59.6% | 74.6% | 59 | -9.7% |
| 11 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.41 | -51.3% | 74.5% | 47 | -11.3% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.41 | -65.4% | 45.5% | 121 | -9.8% |
| 13 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.4 | -70.0% | 68.7% | 275 | -10.5% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.38 | -76.6% | 47.9% | 117 | -10.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Casey's (CASY), WaveTrend (8/6/4) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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