The best indicator for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Heikin-Ashi Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) over ~64.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 13.7% | 0.72 | -54.3% | 43.3% | 2892 | 1.2% |
| 2 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 11.2% | 0.61 | -66.3% | 40.4% | 1384 | -1.3% |
| 3 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.48 | -70.5% | 37.0% | 810 | -4.3% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.47 | -69.6% | 41.1% | 834 | -4.6% |
| 5 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.8% | 0.46 | -66.3% | 45.8% | 48 | -4.7% |
| 6 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.45 | -48.7% | 50.4% | 131 | -4.6% |
| 7 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.41 | -62.2% | 41.1% | 625 | -6.0% |
| 8 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.4 | -63.7% | 69.1% | 430 | -6.4% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.4 | -70.3% | 47.3% | 55 | -6.4% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.39 | -65.9% | 43.3% | 210 | -6.1% |
| 11 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.41 | -37.8% | 92.9% | 14 | -7.5% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.38 | -60.5% | 73.2% | 302 | -6.9% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.37 | -68.8% | 37.0% | 154 | -6.9% |
| 14 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.37 | -67.9% | 74.2% | 66 | -7.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Heikin-Ashi Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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