The best indicator for CF Industries (CF)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real CF Industries (CF) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for CF Industries (CF) over ~20.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 19.8% | 0.75 | -42.7% | 46.8% | 47 | -0.3% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 19.4% | 0.72 | -50.9% | 54.8% | 42 | -1.5% |
| 3 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 18.4% | 0.71 | -46.6% | 46.6% | 58 | -1.7% |
| 4 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 17.7% | 0.68 | -54.1% | 54.1% | 61 | -2.4% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.0% | 0.56 | -59.9% | 49.0% | 100 | -7.1% |
| 6 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 12.2% | 0.55 | -65.1% | 43.9% | 41 | -7.9% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 11.8% | 0.55 | -59.2% | 81.2% | 16 | -8.3% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 11.6% | 0.53 | -59.3% | 45.0% | 20 | -8.5% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.52 | -71.2% | 53.3% | 15 | -8.4% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 9.6% | 0.52 | -50.4% | 47.4% | 95 | -11.3% |
| 11 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.2% | 0.51 | -72.8% | 37.5% | 16 | -8.7% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 11.1% | 0.5 | -59.2% | 36.5% | 274 | -9.8% |
| 13 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.48 | -60.0% | 56.2% | 32 | -10.8% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.46 | -79.2% | 42.9% | 14 | -10.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For CF Industries (CF), RSI Trend (>50) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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