The best indicator for Ciena (CIEN)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Ciena (CIEN) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Ciena (CIEN) over ~29.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 7.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.0% | 0.48 | -72.3% | 41.5% | 65 | 7.3% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 9.6% | 0.43 | -82.0% | 42.3% | 381 | 4.9% |
| 3 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.41 | -87.5% | 49.3% | 138 | 4.4% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.39 | -77.6% | 43.5% | 23 | 2.9% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.38 | -87.7% | 40.8% | 382 | 2.6% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.37 | -89.6% | 37.8% | 90 | 2.5% |
| 7 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.37 | -90.5% | 48.5% | 266 | 2.6% |
| 8 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.36 | -88.1% | 34.8% | 23 | 1.4% |
| 9 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.36 | -96.4% | 45.1% | 51 | 1.4% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.36 | -85.6% | 45.4% | 97 | 1.4% |
| 11 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.33 | -94.9% | 78.9% | 38 | 0.9% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.33 | -85.2% | 41.9% | 86 | 0.9% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.32 | -89.3% | 44.4% | 18 | -0.1% |
| 14 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.32 | -93.6% | 40.0% | 45 | 0.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Ciena (CIEN), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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