The best indicator for Coinbase (COIN)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Coinbase (COIN) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Coinbase (COIN) over ~5.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 41.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 27.5% | 0.7 | -67.4% | 35.7% | 42 | 41.4% |
| 2 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 17.6% | 0.57 | -65.9% | 67.5% | 40 | 31.5% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 17.8% | 0.57 | -64.8% | 37.5% | 72 | 31.7% |
| 4 | Bollinger Breakout | Daily | 14.2% | 0.51 | -50.6% | 32.0% | 25 | 28.1% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | 13.2% | 0.49 | -55.9% | 36.8% | 19 | 27.1% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 12.4% | 0.48 | -70.0% | 37.7% | 69 | 26.3% |
| 7 | Stochastic | Daily | 5.4% | 0.38 | -66.6% | 68.6% | 35 | 19.3% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.36 | -61.0% | 29.2% | 72 | 18.4% |
| 9 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.32 | -57.3% | 29.4% | 17 | 17.6% |
| 10 | MACD | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.37 | -64.3% | 55.6% | 9 | 19.9% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -3.7% | 0.2 | -56.7% | 35.7% | 14 | 10.2% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI | Daily | -5.3% | 0.11 | -61.4% | 40.7% | 27 | 8.5% |
| 13 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | -7.0% | 0.09 | -68.6% | 60.9% | 23 | 6.9% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend | Daily | -11.4% | 0.08 | -69.5% | 37.7% | 122 | 2.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Coinbase (COIN), MACD on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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