The best indicator for ConocoPhillips (COP)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real ConocoPhillips (COP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for ConocoPhillips (COP) over ~44.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.47 | -45.2% | 62.5% | 16 | -2.4% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 8.3% | 0.46 | -69.1% | 73.0% | 174 | -3.1% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.0% | 0.44 | -51.3% | 56.2% | 32 | -3.4% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.43 | -60.5% | 84.8% | 46 | -4.8% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.42 | -62.7% | 87.5% | 32 | -4.5% |
| 6 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.37 | -74.7% | 71.6% | 225 | -5.8% |
| 7 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.35 | -63.2% | 75.0% | 40 | -5.8% |
| 8 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.35 | -67.1% | 76.7% | 60 | -6.2% |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.35 | -47.6% | 81.8% | 33 | -6.9% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.33 | -50.3% | 49.0% | 155 | -6.2% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.32 | -51.4% | 45.6% | 103 | -6.6% |
| 12 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.3 | -67.5% | 52.6% | 38 | -7.1% |
| 13 | CCI | Daily | 4.4% | 0.3 | -84.7% | 69.4% | 219 | -7.0% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.3 | -47.5% | 44.7% | 38 | -7.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For ConocoPhillips (COP), EMA 20/50 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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