The best indicator for Costco (COST)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Costco (COST) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
WaveTrend (8/6/4)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Costco (COST) over ~40.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.52 | -44.0% | 83.9% | 31 | -5.0% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.5 | -46.0% | 84.2% | 38 | -6.2% |
| 3 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.48 | -52.4% | 79.4% | 34 | -5.5% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.47 | -70.4% | 33.3% | 15 | -4.6% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.46 | -49.2% | 43.0% | 100 | -5.2% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.44 | -49.2% | 68.3% | 145 | -5.5% |
| 7 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.44 | -40.9% | 92.3% | 26 | -8.0% |
| 8 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.41 | -62.2% | 70.3% | 263 | -6.6% |
| 9 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.41 | -46.8% | 84.0% | 50 | -7.4% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.41 | -58.0% | 50.4% | 131 | -6.4% |
| 11 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.49 | -44.0% | 83.3% | 12 | -6.6% |
| 12 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.39 | -42.6% | 71.2% | 153 | -7.9% |
| 13 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.38 | -73.1% | 35.7% | 28 | -6.7% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.38 | -58.4% | 40.7% | 91 | -7.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Costco (COST), WaveTrend (8/6/4) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More stock
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.