The best indicator for Carvana (CVNA)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Carvana (CVNA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Midline
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Carvana (CVNA) over ~9.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 50.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 95.7% | 1.3 | -66.2% | 34.4% | 93 | 50.3% |
| 2 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 93.7% | 1.22 | -73.3% | 56.1% | 66 | 48.7% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 79.1% | 1.15 | -76.2% | 41.8% | 122 | 33.7% |
| 4 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 76.1% | 1.14 | -57.5% | 45.5% | 176 | 30.7% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 74.3% | 1.12 | -52.8% | 39.0% | 105 | 28.9% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 63.6% | 1.11 | -43.7% | 50.0% | 18 | 18.6% |
| 7 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 60.4% | 1.08 | -47.8% | 53.8% | 39 | 15.0% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 53.8% | 0.95 | -66.8% | 51.4% | 37 | 8.8% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 44.4% | 0.93 | -50.6% | 47.6% | 21 | -0.5% |
| 10 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 46.9% | 0.87 | -65.0% | 45.0% | 440 | 1.5% |
| 11 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 31.9% | 0.77 | -57.5% | 62.5% | 16 | -13.0% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 33.3% | 0.75 | -82.0% | 45.0% | 20 | -12.1% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 33.0% | 0.75 | -57.9% | 48.7% | 39 | -12.4% |
| 14 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 26.4% | 0.66 | -67.0% | 44.6% | 74 | -19.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Carvana (CVNA), Donchian Midline on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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