The best indicator for Dollar General (DG)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dollar General (DG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Rate of Change
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dollar General (DG) over ~16.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Money Flow Index | Daily | 9.0% | 0.58 | -42.1% | 88.9% | 18 | -1.6% |
| 2 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.46 | -46.7% | 53.1% | 49 | -2.8% |
| 3 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.43 | -37.7% | 60.5% | 38 | -3.6% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.41 | -41.7% | 53.5% | 43 | -3.9% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.4 | -41.1% | 50.0% | 76 | -4.2% |
| 6 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.9% | 0.38 | -39.2% | 47.2% | 36 | -4.7% |
| 7 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | 8.0% | 0.45 | -44.5% | 50.0% | 12 | -2.6% |
| 8 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | 4.4% | 0.36 | -49.8% | 71.6% | 74 | -6.2% |
| 9 | MACD | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.33 | -51.8% | 55.9% | 34 | -6.2% |
| 10 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.33 | -52.8% | 51.0% | 155 | -5.8% |
| 11 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.3% | 0.54 | -34.6% | 87.5% | 8 | -0.3% |
| 12 | Stochastic | Daily | 3.2% | 0.27 | -54.9% | 62.0% | 79 | -7.4% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.22 | -53.2% | 66.7% | 15 | -8.2% |
| 14 | MACD | Daily | 2.1% | 0.21 | -60.9% | 45.1% | 162 | -8.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dollar General (DG), Rate of Change on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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