The best indicator for Dollar Tree (DLTR)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dollar Tree (DLTR) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dollar Tree (DLTR) over ~31.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.53 | -58.3% | 78.8% | 33 | -5.9% |
| 2 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.51 | -58.2% | 54.8% | 62 | -5.4% |
| 3 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 9.9% | 0.47 | -61.8% | 72.3% | 112 | -5.7% |
| 4 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 9.6% | 0.47 | -65.2% | 75.0% | 36 | -6.0% |
| 5 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.47 | -61.9% | 75.6% | 41 | -6.9% |
| 6 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.46 | -54.5% | 54.5% | 132 | -6.5% |
| 7 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.44 | -50.8% | 76.5% | 51 | -8.3% |
| 8 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.4 | -55.5% | 76.9% | 52 | -8.6% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.39 | -63.4% | 40.8% | 71 | -8.5% |
| 10 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.38 | -61.1% | 39.5% | 395 | -8.6% |
| 11 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.37 | -58.2% | 61.3% | 31 | -9.2% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.37 | -57.9% | 37.5% | 80 | -8.9% |
| 13 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.36 | -77.2% | 61.9% | 21 | -9.2% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.36 | -64.5% | 53.3% | 15 | -9.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dollar Tree (DLTR), Stochastic on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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