The best indicator for Dexcom (DXCM)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dexcom (DXCM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Breakout
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dexcom (DXCM) over ~21.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 14.4% | 0.61 | -66.1% | 47.4% | 78 | -2.0% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 15.6% | 0.6 | -62.8% | 44.2% | 52 | -1.5% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 14.5% | 0.56 | -71.6% | 45.9% | 340 | -1.9% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.6% | 0.54 | -67.1% | 46.7% | 15 | -2.9% |
| 5 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 12.6% | 0.54 | -52.1% | 53.3% | 30 | -4.4% |
| 6 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 10.9% | 0.53 | -44.3% | 66.7% | 18 | -6.2% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.0% | 0.5 | -59.7% | 38.8% | 49 | -4.4% |
| 8 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.5 | -72.0% | 45.9% | 207 | -3.9% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout | Weekly | 11.2% | 0.5 | -59.5% | 56.2% | 16 | -5.9% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.48 | -58.2% | 55.8% | 43 | -5.8% |
| 11 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.46 | -76.1% | 52.4% | 191 | -5.8% |
| 12 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.45 | -76.5% | 51.7% | 87 | -7.1% |
| 13 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.4% | 0.56 | -62.0% | 36.4% | 11 | -2.0% |
| 14 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.41 | -78.4% | 49.2% | 61 | -8.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dexcom (DXCM), Donchian Breakout on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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