The best indicator for FedEx (FDX)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real FedEx (FDX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for FedEx (FDX) over ~48.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.48 | -57.1% | 48.4% | 93 | -5.0% |
| 2 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.42 | -77.7% | 47.5% | 40 | -6.6% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.42 | -59.7% | 44.1% | 143 | -6.2% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.41 | -66.7% | 33.3% | 120 | -6.8% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.41 | -64.6% | 39.7% | 1079 | -6.8% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.39 | -73.0% | 34.3% | 636 | -7.3% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.39 | -57.4% | 72.0% | 246 | -7.9% |
| 8 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.38 | -78.9% | 45.7% | 35 | -7.4% |
| 9 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.38 | -55.0% | 71.9% | 313 | -7.9% |
| 10 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.38 | -59.6% | 35.9% | 643 | -7.6% |
| 11 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.38 | -69.5% | 45.2% | 62 | -8.0% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.38 | -60.7% | 76.0% | 50 | -7.8% |
| 13 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.37 | -68.2% | 52.9% | 51 | -8.4% |
| 14 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.37 | -51.4% | 68.0% | 50 | -8.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For FedEx (FDX), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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