The best indicator for First Solar (FSLR)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real First Solar (FSLR) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for First Solar (FSLR) over ~19.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 17.3% | 0.59 | -79.8% | 43.2% | 44 | 4.1% |
| 2 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 16.4% | 0.57 | -77.2% | 37.0% | 54 | 3.2% |
| 3 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 15.4% | 0.55 | -63.9% | 57.7% | 26 | 2.3% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 13.4% | 0.51 | -65.8% | 37.8% | 238 | 0.2% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.7% | 0.46 | -68.0% | 41.6% | 89 | -1.5% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.42 | -83.8% | 53.1% | 49 | -3.7% |
| 7 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.41 | -65.9% | 50.0% | 18 | -4.7% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.39 | -77.6% | 38.9% | 262 | -5.3% |
| 9 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.39 | -71.2% | 42.8% | 318 | -5.3% |
| 10 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.37 | -82.5% | 44.2% | 52 | -5.9% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.36 | -70.3% | 44.0% | 75 | -6.2% |
| 12 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.35 | -65.4% | 36.6% | 93 | -6.9% |
| 13 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.35 | -88.9% | 77.3% | 22 | -6.9% |
| 14 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.33 | -73.0% | 43.5% | 124 | -7.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For First Solar (FSLR), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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