The best indicator for Home Depot (The) (HD)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Home Depot (The) (HD) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Home Depot (The) (HD) over ~44.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 16.4% | 0.7 | -72.4% | 42.9% | 98 | -8.3% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 16.5% | 0.69 | -69.4% | 43.8% | 16 | -8.0% |
| 3 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 14.8% | 0.69 | -58.8% | 56.8% | 37 | -9.8% |
| 4 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 13.8% | 0.68 | -44.7% | 54.4% | 57 | -10.7% |
| 5 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 12.9% | 0.67 | -54.0% | 58.5% | 41 | -11.6% |
| 6 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.7% | 0.65 | -70.6% | 48.1% | 27 | -9.9% |
| 7 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 14.3% | 0.65 | -79.1% | 49.6% | 125 | -10.2% |
| 8 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 13.9% | 0.63 | -83.2% | 56.8% | 132 | -10.6% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.63 | -70.1% | 50.4% | 123 | -11.0% |
| 10 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.9% | 0.62 | -73.1% | 43.3% | 30 | -10.8% |
| 11 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 11.6% | 0.57 | -80.7% | 51.1% | 92 | -12.9% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.53 | -69.5% | 40.0% | 575 | -14.1% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.52 | -70.9% | 38.7% | 617 | -14.1% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.52 | -77.0% | 53.7% | 214 | -14.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Home Depot (The) (HD), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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