The best indicator for IBM (IBM)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real IBM (IBM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for IBM (IBM) over ~64.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 8.6% | 0.57 | -51.1% | 43.8% | 585 | 0.0% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.44 | -54.2% | 44.7% | 266 | -3.0% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.42 | -55.6% | 49.0% | 194 | -2.7% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.4 | -70.6% | 45.6% | 169 | -3.0% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.39 | -55.6% | 83.6% | 55 | -3.5% |
| 6 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.39 | -61.9% | 47.6% | 288 | -3.4% |
| 7 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.37 | -53.4% | 51.8% | 579 | -3.6% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.37 | -75.3% | 46.2% | 173 | -3.7% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.36 | -50.7% | 42.1% | 877 | -3.8% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.36 | -65.1% | 44.9% | 136 | -4.0% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.35 | -68.7% | 38.8% | 152 | -3.9% |
| 12 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.35 | -55.7% | 45.5% | 292 | -4.8% |
| 13 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.35 | -40.8% | 41.4% | 452 | -4.8% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.34 | -55.0% | 39.4% | 864 | -4.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For IBM (IBM), MACD on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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