The best indicator for S&P 500 Index (SPX)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P 500 Index (SPX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P 500 Index (SPX) over ~98.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.58 | -44.3% | 49.6% | 228 | -0.0% |
| 2 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 14.7% | 1.48 | -7.2% | 50.0% | 10 | -4.8% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 16.0% | 1.62 | -6.9% | 77.8% | 9 | -3.5% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.53 | -49.2% | 68.6% | 51 | -0.0% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.53 | -42.7% | 45.5% | 420 | -0.7% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 5.8% | 0.53 | -49.0% | 45.6% | 239 | -0.5% |
| 7 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.52 | -51.0% | 55.8% | 52 | -0.2% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.52 | -36.7% | 40.8% | 211 | -0.7% |
| 9 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 1-Hour | 9.9% | 0.89 | -11.1% | 77.3% | 75 | -9.7% |
| 10 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.51 | -44.0% | 69.7% | 33 | -0.6% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 7.5% | 0.87 | -13.9% | 42.6% | 47 | -12.0% |
| 12 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.47 | -54.7% | 49.1% | 287 | -1.4% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.45 | -44.4% | 57.6% | 85 | -1.9% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.42 | -52.8% | 36.6% | 1246 | -2.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For S&P 500 Index (SPX), RSI Trend (>50) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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