The best indicator for Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nasdaq 100 (NDX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Rate of Change
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) over ~40.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.77 | -48.5% | 58.4% | 113 | -2.7% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 11.2% | 0.72 | -56.5% | 46.3% | 95 | -3.5% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.8% | 0.7 | -41.3% | 56.5% | 23 | -1.9% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.7 | -42.2% | 73.1% | 26 | -2.2% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.68 | -64.1% | 56.8% | 95 | -4.4% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.65 | -41.9% | 76.3% | 38 | -5.4% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.64 | -60.5% | 55.8% | 181 | -5.3% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.76 | -39.7% | 66.7% | 12 | -1.1% |
| 9 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.59 | -52.2% | 40.5% | 556 | -6.1% |
| 10 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.57 | -53.4% | 46.3% | 95 | -6.1% |
| 11 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.56 | -54.4% | 55.5% | 357 | -7.0% |
| 12 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 17.9% | 1.31 | -13.2% | 45.5% | 11 | -7.7% |
| 13 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 16.1% | 1.19 | -14.2% | 41.7% | 12 | -9.5% |
| 14 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.55 | -67.0% | 53.9% | 89 | -7.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Nasdaq 100 (NDX), Rate of Change on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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