The best indicator for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Illinois Tool Works (ITW) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Holy Grail Confluence
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) over ~53.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.51 | -49.7% | 78.4% | 88 | -5.0% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.5 | -49.7% | 71.9% | 288 | -4.7% |
| 3 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.48 | -24.6% | 90.5% | 42 | -6.5% |
| 4 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 6.9% | 0.45 | -50.4% | 71.6% | 268 | -5.3% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.45 | -39.7% | 72.1% | 201 | -5.0% |
| 6 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.43 | -47.2% | 64.0% | 25 | -4.8% |
| 7 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.53 | -33.1% | 100.0% | 12 | -6.5% |
| 8 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.42 | -60.3% | 42.9% | 522 | -6.0% |
| 9 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.41 | -53.9% | 69.5% | 361 | -6.2% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.4 | -55.0% | 45.7% | 35 | -5.9% |
| 11 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.4 | -34.0% | 78.0% | 82 | -7.9% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.38 | -47.2% | 47.9% | 163 | -6.6% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.37 | -38.9% | 81.8% | 44 | -7.7% |
| 14 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.37 | -38.9% | 77.8% | 72 | -7.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Holy Grail Confluence on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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