The best indicator for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Marathon Petroleum (MPC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Rate of Change
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) over ~14.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 21.6% | 0.86 | -39.2% | 46.7% | 212 | -1.3% |
| 2 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 20.8% | 0.84 | -30.5% | 46.9% | 147 | -2.0% |
| 3 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 15.8% | 0.82 | -27.8% | 56.2% | 64 | -7.0% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 20.1% | 0.81 | -42.3% | 44.8% | 192 | -2.7% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 16.0% | 0.74 | -32.7% | 51.6% | 62 | -6.9% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 17.2% | 0.71 | -49.7% | 50.0% | 34 | -5.4% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 15.3% | 0.67 | -42.0% | 44.5% | 337 | -7.5% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.9% | 0.66 | -42.0% | 47.1% | 34 | -8.0% |
| 9 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 12.6% | 0.6 | -72.7% | 80.0% | 20 | -10.1% |
| 10 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.57 | -49.7% | 43.1% | 209 | -10.3% |
| 11 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 10.3% | 0.57 | -36.1% | 57.4% | 94 | -12.6% |
| 12 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.53 | -39.1% | 60.3% | 141 | -10.7% |
| 13 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.52 | -37.9% | 54.2% | 24 | -12.5% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 11.5% | 0.59 | -33.7% | 69.2% | 13 | -11.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Rate of Change on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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