The best indicator for Merck & Co. (MRK)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Merck & Co. (MRK) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Merck & Co. (MRK) over ~64.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.62 | -57.4% | 50.0% | 38 | -2.0% |
| 2 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.0% | 0.61 | -56.4% | 56.4% | 39 | -2.4% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.6% | 0.61 | -45.9% | 65.2% | 23 | -1.9% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.53 | -56.0% | 48.0% | 50 | -4.8% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.49 | -57.8% | 45.7% | 175 | -5.0% |
| 6 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.44 | -52.8% | 54.0% | 63 | -7.4% |
| 7 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.43 | -41.7% | 43.7% | 87 | -7.1% |
| 8 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.41 | -31.5% | 70.2% | 255 | -7.8% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.4 | -62.6% | 45.3% | 190 | -6.6% |
| 10 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.39 | -51.0% | 76.5% | 307 | -7.2% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.38 | -69.5% | 38.4% | 159 | -7.2% |
| 12 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.38 | -32.8% | 70.0% | 323 | -7.6% |
| 13 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.38 | -45.6% | 43.1% | 1024 | -7.3% |
| 14 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.35 | -70.2% | 71.4% | 248 | -7.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Merck & Co. (MRK), EMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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