The best indicator for Moderna (MRNA)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Moderna (MRNA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Moderna (MRNA) over ~7.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 30.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 43.4% | 0.93 | -54.1% | 61.5% | 13 | 30.1% |
| 2 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 36.4% | 0.8 | -63.9% | 45.0% | 20 | 23.2% |
| 3 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 30.3% | 0.73 | -52.1% | 44.4% | 27 | 17.1% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 23.9% | 0.67 | -75.6% | 38.0% | 92 | 10.5% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 22.6% | 0.66 | -61.2% | 41.7% | 24 | 9.2% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 23.1% | 0.63 | -78.0% | 40.0% | 15 | 9.9% |
| 7 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 20.2% | 0.62 | -53.1% | 45.8% | 48 | 6.9% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend | Daily | 19.2% | 0.59 | -88.9% | 38.0% | 171 | 5.9% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 21.6% | 0.61 | -55.4% | 50.0% | 14 | 8.4% |
| 10 | Rate of Change | Daily | 16.2% | 0.54 | -82.2% | 44.3% | 115 | 2.8% |
| 11 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Weekly | 14.6% | 0.51 | -77.4% | 38.5% | 65 | 1.4% |
| 12 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 13.7% | 0.5 | -83.3% | 45.6% | 355 | 0.4% |
| 13 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 13.6% | 0.5 | -86.8% | 36.0% | 100 | 0.2% |
| 14 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 9.8% | 0.43 | -67.1% | 39.4% | 33 | -3.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Moderna (MRNA), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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