The best indicator for Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
SMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) over ~23.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.5% | 0.63 | -69.3% | 68.8% | 16 | -0.2% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 10.6% | 0.55 | -40.6% | 52.6% | 19 | -3.1% |
| 3 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.54 | -72.8% | 59.6% | 47 | -2.4% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.4% | 0.56 | -65.6% | 50.0% | 14 | -2.4% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.1% | 0.47 | -78.8% | 43.4% | 53 | -4.7% |
| 6 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.47 | -37.9% | 61.5% | 26 | -6.1% |
| 7 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.41 | -76.0% | 44.3% | 70 | -6.5% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.39 | -76.3% | 47.7% | 65 | -6.6% |
| 9 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.38 | -44.5% | 77.3% | 22 | -7.7% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.38 | -79.0% | 48.8% | 80 | -6.8% |
| 11 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.37 | -31.6% | 80.0% | 15 | -8.7% |
| 12 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.37 | -58.8% | 94.1% | 17 | -7.2% |
| 13 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.36 | -62.4% | 68.6% | 105 | -7.7% |
| 14 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.33 | -58.1% | 71.4% | 35 | -8.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ), SMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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