The best indicator for NVR, Inc. (NVR)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real NVR, Inc. (NVR) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Midline
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for NVR, Inc. (NVR) over ~41.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.46 | -83.9% | 55.0% | 100 | -5.9% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.8% | 0.44 | -88.9% | 48.8% | 80 | -5.9% |
| 3 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 9.2% | 0.43 | -82.9% | 38.6% | 254 | -5.5% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.39 | -96.3% | 45.5% | 22 | -8.1% |
| 5 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.39 | -76.8% | 50.8% | 63 | -7.5% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.37 | -95.8% | 62.5% | 32 | -9.2% |
| 7 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.35 | -97.3% | 57.7% | 26 | -9.5% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.34 | -96.5% | 44.4% | 18 | -10.0% |
| 9 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 4.9% | 0.31 | -77.0% | 40.0% | 185 | -9.7% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.31 | -95.2% | 61.9% | 42 | -10.6% |
| 11 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 25.4% | 0.23 | -65.7% | 62.3% | 69 | 10.8% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 0.5% | 0.21 | -96.2% | 68.3% | 180 | -14.1% |
| 13 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 20.0% | 0.21 | -82.2% | 51.3% | 117 | 5.3% |
| 14 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 19.7% | 0.21 | -61.7% | 49.5% | 396 | 5.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For NVR, Inc. (NVR), Donchian Midline on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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