The best indicator for Paychex (PAYX)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Paychex (PAYX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Paychex (PAYX) over ~42.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 14.4% | 0.65 | -56.7% | 64.3% | 14 | -3.3% |
| 2 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.0% | 0.59 | -51.2% | 52.0% | 25 | -4.9% |
| 3 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 11.2% | 0.58 | -64.1% | 45.6% | 114 | -6.6% |
| 4 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.57 | -62.9% | 53.9% | 115 | -7.0% |
| 5 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.5% | 0.54 | -66.2% | 54.5% | 33 | -6.4% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.53 | -67.5% | 43.7% | 119 | -7.7% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.9% | 0.5 | -53.2% | 47.3% | 93 | -8.0% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.5 | -60.6% | 61.1% | 36 | -9.1% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.45 | -42.6% | 50.6% | 160 | -10.2% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.44 | -45.8% | 50.0% | 44 | -11.2% |
| 11 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.43 | -44.6% | 65.4% | 272 | -10.8% |
| 12 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.43 | -70.6% | 52.6% | 209 | -10.4% |
| 13 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.42 | -49.5% | 69.2% | 52 | -10.8% |
| 14 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.42 | -54.4% | 79.1% | 67 | -11.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Paychex (PAYX), EMA 20/50 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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