The best indicator for Progressive Corporation (PGR)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Progressive Corporation (PGR) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Progressive Corporation (PGR) over ~46.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.79 | -39.2% | 41.6% | 298 | -8.9% |
| 2 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 13.4% | 0.73 | -58.3% | 44.0% | 673 | -7.9% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.6% | 0.72 | -50.1% | 60.0% | 30 | -6.8% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.0% | 0.72 | -49.2% | 48.1% | 104 | -7.3% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 13.3% | 0.72 | -61.2% | 38.8% | 578 | -8.1% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 13.1% | 0.71 | -66.9% | 38.7% | 579 | -8.3% |
| 7 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.7 | -62.2% | 48.1% | 187 | -10.1% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.69 | -81.2% | 40.9% | 974 | -8.8% |
| 9 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 12.1% | 0.68 | -46.7% | 48.5% | 412 | -9.3% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 9.2% | 0.67 | -51.5% | 46.1% | 204 | -12.2% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 16.9% | 0.77 | -49.8% | 69.2% | 13 | -4.5% |
| 12 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.1% | 0.66 | -57.4% | 64.3% | 28 | -8.2% |
| 13 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 11.6% | 0.66 | -54.4% | 45.9% | 438 | -9.7% |
| 14 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 11.9% | 0.63 | -61.6% | 54.5% | 143 | -9.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Progressive Corporation (PGR), ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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