The best indicator for PulteGroup (PHM)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real PulteGroup (PHM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for PulteGroup (PHM) over ~46.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.5% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.5 | -72.9% | 39.4% | 33 | -4.5% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.5% | 0.5 | -84.1% | 39.0% | 100 | -4.4% |
| 3 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.5 | -67.0% | 57.1% | 42 | -6.4% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.49 | -77.9% | 45.7% | 35 | -5.8% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 10.9% | 0.49 | -85.3% | 44.0% | 125 | -5.0% |
| 6 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.8% | 0.46 | -83.2% | 41.9% | 31 | -6.0% |
| 7 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 10.1% | 0.46 | -73.2% | 37.0% | 605 | -5.7% |
| 8 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.45 | -62.6% | 47.0% | 66 | -7.1% |
| 9 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 9.6% | 0.45 | -90.5% | 44.3% | 140 | -6.3% |
| 10 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.44 | -81.1% | 40.9% | 22 | -6.5% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.44 | -90.7% | 43.0% | 135 | -6.7% |
| 12 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.43 | -79.1% | 49.5% | 91 | -7.1% |
| 13 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.41 | -76.3% | 43.7% | 2242 | -7.6% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.41 | -66.5% | 37.5% | 1064 | -7.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For PulteGroup (PHM), EMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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