The best indicator for PayPal (PYPL)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real PayPal (PYPL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Breakout
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for PayPal (PYPL) over ~11.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.52 | -42.1% | 48.1% | 27 | 8.5% |
| 2 | Rate of Change | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.47 | -36.9% | 46.7% | 30 | 7.1% |
| 3 | ADX / DMI | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.3 | -44.1% | 38.9% | 18 | 2.3% |
| 4 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.41 | -32.1% | 44.4% | 9 | 3.9% |
| 5 | ADX / DMI | Daily | 2.4% | 0.22 | -41.9% | 37.9% | 66 | 1.3% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | 1.3% | 0.18 | -63.5% | 38.5% | 143 | 0.1% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 1.2% | 0.17 | -68.5% | 32.1% | 28 | 0.1% |
| 8 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | 1.1% | 0.17 | -57.1% | 62.0% | 50 | -0.1% |
| 9 | MACD | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.17 | -67.6% | 39.1% | 23 | -0.7% |
| 10 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.16 | -69.5% | 49.0% | 51 | -0.7% |
| 11 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 0.4% | 0.15 | -69.1% | 68.2% | 66 | -0.8% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.15 | -65.9% | 41.7% | 36 | -1.0% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | -1.0% | 0.1 | -63.6% | 69.2% | 52 | -2.1% |
| 14 | CCI | Daily | -1.8% | 0.07 | -70.3% | 74.1% | 54 | -3.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For PayPal (PYPL), Bollinger Breakout on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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