The best indicator for Supermicro (SMCI)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Supermicro (SMCI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Supermicro (SMCI) over ~19.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 17.0% | 0.58 | -68.0% | 47.1% | 34 | -5.0% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 13.8% | 0.53 | -58.4% | 71.9% | 89 | -8.5% |
| 3 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 12.3% | 0.5 | -65.7% | 67.9% | 112 | -10.0% |
| 4 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 13.2% | 0.5 | -61.1% | 68.4% | 19 | -8.9% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 11.5% | 0.47 | -67.8% | 70.6% | 68 | -10.9% |
| 6 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 11.1% | 0.46 | -77.4% | 47.4% | 917 | -11.2% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.45 | -68.5% | 43.3% | 60 | -11.3% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 10.4% | 0.44 | -68.9% | 50.0% | 18 | -11.6% |
| 9 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 9.8% | 0.43 | -63.1% | 69.3% | 88 | -12.5% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 8.0% | 0.4 | -66.0% | 50.7% | 71 | -14.3% |
| 11 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.4 | -69.9% | 80.0% | 15 | -13.7% |
| 12 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.45 | -82.9% | 38.5% | 13 | -11.4% |
| 13 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.38 | -51.8% | 69.0% | 29 | -15.4% |
| 14 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.37 | -80.7% | 42.2% | 185 | -15.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Supermicro (SMCI), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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