The best indicator for Steel Dynamics (STLD)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Steel Dynamics (STLD) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
CCI
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Steel Dynamics (STLD) over ~29.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 13.8% | 0.63 | -55.9% | 90.3% | 31 | -2.7% |
| 2 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 13.7% | 0.56 | -61.1% | 44.1% | 390 | -2.9% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.49 | -45.1% | 44.3% | 472 | -5.7% |
| 4 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.2% | 0.49 | -47.7% | 52.0% | 269 | -5.3% |
| 5 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.46 | -64.5% | 48.1% | 104 | -6.4% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.45 | -73.9% | 81.0% | 21 | -7.1% |
| 7 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.45 | -53.9% | 52.3% | 86 | -6.8% |
| 8 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.43 | -47.6% | 49.2% | 61 | -7.3% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.42 | -72.0% | 38.9% | 18 | -7.8% |
| 10 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.42 | -76.0% | 75.8% | 33 | -8.0% |
| 11 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.41 | -78.7% | 30.0% | 20 | -8.1% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.39 | -63.9% | 48.4% | 95 | -8.7% |
| 13 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.39 | -59.4% | 50.3% | 145 | -8.8% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.35 | -61.9% | 36.5% | 74 | -10.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Steel Dynamics (STLD), CCI on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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