The best indicator for Target Corporation (TGT)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Target Corporation (TGT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Target Corporation (TGT) over ~53.5 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.53 | -57.2% | 58.1% | 105 | -3.8% |
| 2 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.52 | -44.9% | 48.5% | 241 | -3.8% |
| 3 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.5 | -47.7% | 58.1% | 43 | -4.7% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.48 | -43.3% | 40.8% | 147 | -4.8% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.46 | -64.5% | 46.6% | 146 | -5.1% |
| 6 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.44 | -51.8% | 78.9% | 57 | -5.9% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.43 | -66.9% | 43.5% | 124 | -5.5% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.43 | -62.7% | 48.0% | 25 | -5.3% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.41 | -67.5% | 44.4% | 36 | -5.8% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.41 | -69.6% | 50.0% | 38 | -6.0% |
| 11 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.41 | -49.7% | 75.9% | 54 | -7.1% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.39 | -83.7% | 35.9% | 722 | -6.6% |
| 13 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.38 | -34.7% | 53.4% | 58 | -8.0% |
| 14 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.43 | -54.9% | 92.3% | 13 | -7.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Target Corporation (TGT), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More stock
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.