The best indicator for T. Rowe Price (TROW)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real T. Rowe Price (TROW) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Holy Grail Confluence
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for T. Rowe Price (TROW) over ~40.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.5% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.47 | -43.2% | 79.7% | 64 | -7.5% |
| 2 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 8.3% | 0.47 | -49.0% | 76.3% | 59 | -6.9% |
| 3 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.46 | -46.3% | 92.9% | 14 | -7.5% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.1% | 0.42 | -57.4% | 40.7% | 27 | -7.5% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.42 | -61.3% | 47.1% | 17 | -7.2% |
| 6 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.41 | -35.7% | 81.0% | 58 | -10.3% |
| 7 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.41 | -58.1% | 82.9% | 41 | -8.9% |
| 8 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.41 | -65.3% | 55.5% | 137 | -8.0% |
| 9 | CCI | Daily | 6.8% | 0.39 | -55.4% | 75.4% | 187 | -8.8% |
| 10 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Daily | 7.1% | 0.39 | -62.6% | 70.6% | 143 | -8.5% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.39 | -49.0% | 82.6% | 46 | -8.8% |
| 12 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.38 | -70.1% | 40.6% | 32 | -8.6% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.37 | -77.2% | 46.9% | 113 | -8.9% |
| 14 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.37 | -54.6% | 78.1% | 32 | -9.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For T. Rowe Price (TROW), Holy Grail Confluence on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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