The best indicator for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Ulta Beauty (ULTA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) over ~18.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 16.5% | 0.65 | -37.8% | 42.1% | 38 | 1.0% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 13.9% | 0.6 | -46.3% | 46.2% | 13 | -1.6% |
| 3 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.52 | -57.3% | 72.7% | 22 | -4.9% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.51 | -57.3% | 87.5% | 16 | -5.6% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.5 | -48.3% | 35.9% | 39 | -5.1% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 11.0% | 0.49 | -42.9% | 54.3% | 46 | -4.5% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 9.7% | 0.46 | -62.4% | 42.6% | 289 | -6.3% |
| 8 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 8.3% | 0.45 | -70.1% | 88.9% | 18 | -7.1% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 16.6% | 0.66 | -44.2% | 40.0% | 10 | 0.6% |
| 10 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.4 | -47.0% | 66.7% | 27 | -9.1% |
| 11 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.4 | -37.6% | 38.9% | 18 | -8.8% |
| 12 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 16.9% | 0.66 | -51.0% | 55.6% | 9 | 0.9% |
| 13 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.38 | -52.2% | 60.7% | 28 | -8.9% |
| 14 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.38 | -63.6% | 34.4% | 32 | -8.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Ulta Beauty (ULTA), RSI Trend (>50) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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