The best indicator for U.S. Bancorp (USB)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real U.S. Bancorp (USB) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Holy Grail Confluence
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for U.S. Bancorp (USB) over ~53.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.46 | -45.5% | 100.0% | 18 | -5.1% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.44 | -48.5% | 71.6% | 218 | -5.2% |
| 3 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.42 | -75.0% | 43.4% | 525 | -5.2% |
| 4 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.42 | -45.8% | 70.0% | 293 | -5.5% |
| 5 | Bollinger Breakout | Daily | 4.4% | 0.39 | -61.4% | 42.9% | 240 | -7.5% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 5.9% | 0.37 | -71.4% | 71.0% | 193 | -6.0% |
| 7 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.37 | -61.7% | 47.6% | 42 | -6.8% |
| 8 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.34 | -69.6% | 75.6% | 90 | -7.2% |
| 9 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.34 | -68.9% | 72.3% | 47 | -7.0% |
| 10 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.33 | -79.5% | 36.4% | 44 | -7.3% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 4.7% | 0.33 | -64.1% | 30.7% | 127 | -7.2% |
| 12 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.33 | -47.6% | 72.0% | 82 | -8.3% |
| 13 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.33 | -72.9% | 40.9% | 687 | -7.2% |
| 14 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.32 | -75.5% | 39.0% | 41 | -7.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For U.S. Bancorp (USB), Holy Grail Confluence on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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