The best indicator for Vistra Corp. (VST)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Vistra Corp. (VST) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Vistra Corp. (VST) over ~9.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 22.6% | 0.92 | -49.3% | 84.3% | 51 | -8.0% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 22.6% | 0.88 | -48.9% | 78.4% | 37 | -8.0% |
| 3 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 17.9% | 0.75 | -51.5% | 73.4% | 64 | -12.7% |
| 4 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 14.6% | 0.71 | -43.5% | 76.2% | 42 | -16.0% |
| 5 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 15.1% | 0.68 | -52.5% | 75.0% | 44 | -15.5% |
| 6 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 14.3% | 0.65 | -31.1% | 42.1% | 19 | -15.7% |
| 7 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.56 | -39.9% | 66.7% | 15 | -18.0% |
| 8 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 17.2% | 0.7 | -42.6% | 50.0% | 12 | -12.8% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 11.8% | 0.55 | -55.9% | 42.9% | 35 | -18.8% |
| 10 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.52 | -56.7% | 46.4% | 28 | -17.9% |
| 11 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 14.6% | 0.7 | -38.0% | 72.7% | 11 | -16.0% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 10.7% | 0.49 | -50.3% | 30.1% | 133 | -19.8% |
| 13 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.49 | -48.1% | 33.3% | 27 | -19.8% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.8% | 0.46 | -66.8% | 30.8% | 26 | -20.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Vistra Corp. (VST), Stochastic on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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