The best indicator for Walmart (WMT)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Walmart (WMT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Walmart (WMT) over ~54.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 16.0% | 0.74 | -64.8% | 55.0% | 20 | -2.7% |
| 2 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.4% | 0.68 | -69.8% | 37.9% | 29 | -4.3% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.62 | -57.9% | 46.2% | 39 | -6.3% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.58 | -80.6% | 46.7% | 152 | -7.4% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.58 | -62.1% | 50.0% | 46 | -8.4% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.56 | -79.7% | 49.1% | 163 | -8.4% |
| 7 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.55 | -55.2% | 51.2% | 82 | -9.5% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.55 | -81.6% | 45.7% | 162 | -8.6% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.4% | 0.52 | -76.6% | 37.9% | 124 | -9.3% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.52 | -71.4% | 49.6% | 113 | -10.0% |
| 11 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.52 | -69.6% | 47.7% | 258 | -9.3% |
| 12 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.49 | -39.5% | 71.1% | 266 | -11.5% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.48 | -71.3% | 43.8% | 226 | -11.4% |
| 14 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Daily | 7.7% | 0.47 | -91.5% | 46.0% | 2616 | -11.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Walmart (WMT), EMA 20/50 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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