The best indicator for Amazon (AMZN)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Amazon (AMZN) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA-10 Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Amazon (AMZN) over ~29.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 22.6% | 0.7 | -74.5% | 48.8% | 125 | -8.7% |
| 2 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 21.9% | 0.69 | -63.9% | 58.8% | 17 | -9.1% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 21.5% | 0.69 | -61.5% | 58.8% | 17 | -9.5% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 20.6% | 0.66 | -77.0% | 41.2% | 68 | -10.3% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 19.7% | 0.66 | -65.5% | 44.0% | 661 | -11.3% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 20.3% | 0.66 | -81.1% | 51.3% | 76 | -11.0% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 21.1% | 0.66 | -74.8% | 56.7% | 90 | -10.2% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 20.5% | 0.66 | -76.0% | 52.6% | 76 | -10.9% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 19.2% | 0.64 | -69.9% | 42.3% | 366 | -11.8% |
| 10 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | 1-Hour | 21.8% | 1.06 | -19.7% | 69.8% | 43 | -3.4% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 17.6% | 0.61 | -70.4% | 50.0% | 26 | -13.8% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 16.3% | 0.58 | -88.4% | 41.4% | 394 | -14.7% |
| 13 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 17.4% | 0.58 | -72.6% | 48.3% | 60 | -14.0% |
| 14 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 15.8% | 0.57 | -83.8% | 45.7% | 446 | -15.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Amazon (AMZN), EMA-10 Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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