The best indicator for Avalanche (AVAX)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Avalanche (AVAX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Avalanche (AVAX) over ~8.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 45.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rate of Change | Daily | 54.1% | 0.93 | -67.2% | 36.4% | 121 | 50.2% |
| 2 | MACD | Daily | 50.0% | 0.89 | -71.4% | 41.4% | 58 | 46.2% |
| 3 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 49.3% | 0.89 | -77.3% | 42.3% | 97 | 45.4% |
| 4 | Bollinger Breakout | Daily | 46.3% | 0.89 | -64.4% | 25.0% | 36 | 42.5% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 44.6% | 0.85 | -76.6% | 26.7% | 15 | 40.8% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 43.8% | 0.84 | -77.9% | 37.3% | 102 | 40.0% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend | Daily | 37.4% | 0.78 | -80.5% | 39.8% | 191 | 33.5% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | 45.9% | 0.78 | -74.6% | 40.0% | 20 | 40.7% |
| 9 | ADX / DMI | Daily | 35.9% | 0.76 | -76.0% | 31.5% | 54 | 32.0% |
| 10 | Rate of Change | Weekly | 34.8% | 0.72 | -77.4% | 43.8% | 16 | 29.6% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | 30.0% | 0.7 | -81.9% | 29.0% | 31 | 26.1% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 34.1% | 0.7 | -73.8% | 37.5% | 16 | 28.9% |
| 13 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Weekly | 19.1% | 0.61 | -84.8% | 42.9% | 49 | 13.9% |
| 14 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Daily | 19.6% | 0.59 | -76.4% | 40.8% | 358 | 15.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Avalanche (AVAX), RSI Trend (>50) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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