The best indicator for Polkadot (DOT)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Polkadot (DOT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Breakout
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Polkadot (DOT) over ~8.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 41.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 29.0% | 0.76 | -41.7% | 31.2% | 32 | 41.3% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI | Daily | 19.8% | 0.59 | -74.7% | 41.7% | 48 | 32.1% |
| 3 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | 16.6% | 0.55 | -63.5% | 37.0% | 27 | 28.9% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 16.3% | 0.54 | -74.2% | 26.7% | 15 | 28.6% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | 16.0% | 0.54 | -76.7% | 26.1% | 23 | 37.6% |
| 6 | Rate of Change | Weekly | 17.9% | 0.56 | -76.8% | 28.6% | 14 | 39.5% |
| 7 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.42 | -87.0% | 34.7% | 49 | 25.9% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 24.2% | 0.62 | -64.4% | 40.0% | 10 | 45.8% |
| 9 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | 7.1% | 0.4 | -73.4% | 35.8% | 109 | 19.4% |
| 10 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 5.5% | 0.36 | -82.2% | 32.2% | 115 | 17.8% |
| 11 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 0.8% | 0.29 | -88.1% | 42.3% | 364 | 13.1% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 13.1% | 0.52 | -73.0% | 50.0% | 8 | 34.7% |
| 13 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | -3.7% | 0.29 | -81.9% | 30.8% | 13 | 17.9% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 0.9% | 0.22 | -59.3% | 59.5% | 37 | 13.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Polkadot (DOT), Bollinger Breakout on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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