The best indicator for Ethereum Classic (ETC)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Ethereum Classic (ETC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Ethereum Classic (ETC) over ~8.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 16.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Breakout | Daily | 15.4% | 0.52 | -72.0% | 32.0% | 50 | 20.9% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI | Daily | 11.0% | 0.46 | -82.7% | 34.1% | 82 | 16.6% |
| 3 | MACD | Daily | 9.0% | 0.45 | -89.4% | 30.6% | 111 | 14.5% |
| 4 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 8.3% | 0.45 | -91.0% | 26.7% | 15 | 16.9% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | 8.3% | 0.44 | -85.3% | 41.5% | 164 | 13.9% |
| 6 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.43 | -94.7% | 44.6% | 83 | 13.9% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.42 | -79.8% | 25.9% | 27 | 13.1% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.42 | -85.8% | 35.0% | 20 | 17.9% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | 7.8% | 0.41 | -77.8% | 31.8% | 44 | 13.4% |
| 10 | EMA-10 Trend | Daily | 6.1% | 0.4 | -90.8% | 35.9% | 284 | 11.7% |
| 11 | Rate of Change | Daily | 2.7% | 0.35 | -94.3% | 41.0% | 210 | 8.3% |
| 12 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | -2.2% | 0.35 | -80.9% | 35.0% | 40 | 6.4% |
| 13 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | -3.7% | 0.33 | -91.7% | 36.0% | 25 | 4.9% |
| 14 | CCI | Weekly | 10.9% | 0.45 | -85.6% | 77.8% | 9 | 19.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Ethereum Classic (ETC), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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