The best indicator for Filecoin (FIL)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Filecoin (FIL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Filecoin (FIL) over ~12.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 29.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 10.0% | 0.53 | -91.3% | 35.1% | 74 | 29.8% |
| 2 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 13.4% | 0.47 | -77.1% | 66.1% | 56 | 33.2% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | -2.1% | 0.39 | -87.1% | 40.5% | 74 | 29.6% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | -1.4% | 0.37 | -93.2% | 36.1% | 36 | 18.4% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | -6.0% | 0.34 | -93.8% | 33.3% | 18 | 25.7% |
| 6 | Williams %R | Daily | -8.2% | 0.33 | -98.6% | 52.9% | 68 | 11.6% |
| 7 | Stochastic | Daily | -6.1% | 0.3 | -98.1% | 57.9% | 57 | 13.7% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | -3.5% | 0.29 | -92.3% | 50.0% | 20 | 28.2% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -4.2% | 0.4 | -90.2% | 60.0% | 10 | 15.6% |
| 10 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | -4.9% | 0.23 | -94.5% | 40.0% | 15 | 15.0% |
| 11 | Money Flow Index | Daily | -6.7% | 0.26 | -94.2% | 46.2% | 13 | 13.1% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -16.0% | 0.22 | -94.0% | 39.3% | 28 | 3.8% |
| 13 | EMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -16.4% | 0.23 | -98.6% | 27.3% | 11 | 3.4% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | -17.3% | 0.16 | -90.4% | 43.2% | 37 | 14.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Filecoin (FIL), ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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